Our species really intrigues me. At our best, we’re capable of truly remarkable achievements. On the flip side, we commonly display a propensity for dangerous and destructive (or self-destructive) behavior. Humans tend to be creatures driven by emotion and well-suited for survival in our environment rather than objective, critical analysis of the world around us.

Through a great deal of study in my adult life I’ve developed rather solid critical thinking skills, faculties rooted in fundamental principles of skepticism and tempered by the scientific method of inquiry. I’m quite grateful to possess these methodological tools, but equally disheartened by the significant numbers to whom these concepts remain entirely alien. Allow me to illustrate…

First, the good news:

A periodic comet (or, more accurately, what’s left of it) is making a return visit to our planetary neighborhood; mark your calendar for mid-May, when viewing should be at its best.

Discovered back in 1930, Comet 73P (also known as Schwassmann-Wachmann 3) has made several prior appearances in our neck of the woods, most of which have been rather lackluster from an observational standpoint. While not a great comet akin to Halley, Hyakutake, or Hale-Bopp, it’ll still make for a neat astronomical target despite its comparatively dinky stature.

Some 11 years ago, it was discovered that 73P had fractured into a trio of smaller fragments which were observed during its 1995 rendezvous. As noted by Joe Rao on Space.com:

No one can say for sure what caused the comet to break apart, though the most likely reason is thermal stress, similar to what would happen if you poured hot tea into a cold glass: the comet cracked apart after as it approached the Sun after spending a long time in the frigid depths of space some half a billion miles from the Sun.

Since 73P now exists as a string of some 61 fragments (reminiscent of Shoemaker-Levy 9, just much smaller and minus an impact) they most likely won’t appear visually spectacular in the night sky for we Earth-bound observers, although its surviving segments will be promising binocular objects, and, the possibility remains that they could deliver an impromptu meteor shower.

Astronomers, however, will be monitoring its fly-by closely with a number of resources including the Hubble Space Telescope, as it will offer an excellent opportunity to study a dying comet at relatively close range. It should be noted that “close range” in this context describes most comfortable elbow room — these fragments will pass by the Earth at distances of about 10,000,000 kilometers or greater (roughly 6 million miles), so there’s no impact risk associated with the event. For additional reading on the comet and viewing tips, load up the recent articles posted at Space.com, Sky & Telescope, and NASA.

In the off-chance that you found the good news far too boring…

Here’s the bad news:

ARGH! WE’RE ALL GOING TO DIE. (Not.)

Yesterday, a really goofy press release hit the wires:

Eric Julien, a former French military air traffic controller and senior airport manager, has completed a study of the comet 73P Schwassmann-Wachmann and declared that a fragment is highly likely to impact the Earth on or around May 25, 2006.

Comet Schwassman-Wachmann follows a five-year orbit that crosses the solar system’s ecliptic plane. It has followed its five year orbit intact for centuries; but, in 1995, mysteriously fragmented. According to Julien, this is the same year that a crop circle appeared showing the inner solar system with the Earth missing from its orbit. He argues the “Missing Earth” crop circle was a message from higher intelligences warning humanity of the consequences of its destructive nuclear policies. He links this crop circle to May 25, 2006, and identifies the comet Schwassmann-Wachman as the subject of higher intelligence communications.

Using NASA simulations of the comet’s path, Julien concludes that impact is likely around May 25 precisely when the comet crosses the Earth’s ecliptic plane. While the first fragment will cross at approximately 10 million miles, lagging fragments threaten to collide.

Julien argues that the kinetic energy of even a ‘car sized’ fragment will impact the Earth with devastating effect. He concludes the May 25 event is tied in to the Bush administration’s policy of preemptive use of nuclear weapons against Iran, and the effect of nuclear weapons on the realms of higher intelligences.

Oh, really?

[ Note: Some background information, just so you’re aware of what you’re dealing with here… this group not only claims that extraterrestrial species (plural) exist, but also that they’re visiting the Earth on a regular basis, that the government knows all about it, and is perpetrating a massive cover-up to hide this information from the citizens of Earth. Check out the mission statement on their front page. ]

I followed the link in the “press release” to Julien’s website and read his article, May 25, 2006: The Day of Destiny. I’m not certain if this guy genuinely believes what he’s written or if he’s constructed this scenario as a way of advertising his books. Both of which just happen to be conveniently mentioned within, as well as prominently displayed on the originating page.

What kind of evidence does Eric Julien present to substantiate these eschatological assertions?

Well, he claims to have had “a vision,” three years ago. He later claims that this vision was bolstered, just last Friday, by telepathic communication with extraterrestrials, during meditation:

You need to know that up to recently, before I discovered what you have just read on this fragmented comet, I received on April 7, 2006 a telepathic message from extraterrestrial friends. According to them, a méga-tsunami in the Atlantic Ocean I had experienced in a lucid dream three years ago, would occur around MAY 25, 2006.

Could this be any more ridiculous? The answer is: yes.

Eric Julien makes one of many illogical leaps, concluding that because 73P fragmented in 1995, and that the “Missing Earth” crop circle appeared in Hampshire, U.K. that same year, that the events must be connected. So, in his world, aliens made the crop circle as a preliminary “warning,” an attempt to instruct we silly, primitive humans that we’ll be attacked or destroyed in the future unless we cease and desist the proliferation of nuclear weapons.

Are you dizzy yet? It gets better…

Julien considers the fragmentation of comet 73P to be mysterious and incomprehensible. It couldn’t have just broken up into smaller pieces naturally, now could it? Nah. Evidently that’s far too prosaic an explanation.

He concludes that the comet was deliberately fractured into pieces by extraterrestrials for use as a weapon to impact our planet. So, the aliens are launching a preventative attack on our species for possessing nuclear weaponry, contemplating a “Star Wars” defense initiative (which of course would have posed a grave threat to an incredibly advanced alien species capable of interstellar travel…), and not heeding their previous warnings. Warnings, to recap, which consisted of nebulous geometric patterns mashed into farmers’ wheat fields in the United Kingdom.

Okay… so why is this “attack” just being waged now, you ask? Well, duh, the aliens want to prevent us from launching a nuclear strike on Iran. Aliens hate nukes.

If the aliens really had a beef with our weapons stockpiling, politics, or anything else… and are already visiting here, why not just drop by the United Nations? Wouldn’t that be a better way to deliver a firm message to humanity than all of this cloak-and-dagger stuff? I’m also curious to know why it’s unacceptable for humans to declare war upon one another, but perfectly reasonable for aliens to destroy us with a comet. Perhaps these aren’t super-intelligent beings after all.

If I may be so bold as to steal a marvelous turn of phrase from an acquaintance and fellow skeptic: it must be fun to lead a life completely unburdened by reality.

I’m sure Julien’s claims will reverberate through the creduloid bastions of the Internet between now and the end of May. It’s just unfortunate that some people can’t appreciate the numerous treasures present in the cosmos without concocting ludicrous assertions about them. And, when we pass the “target” date without incident, this will all be completely forgotten while believers latch on to the next doomsday claim du jour.

Addendum, April 21st: At the time I’d originally posted this article, the number of 73P’s observed fragments stood at 21; in the week since, an additional 14 have been labelled by JPL’s corresponding Near Earth Object Program page (which I’d linked above), so I’ve amended the total accordingly (to 35).

May 5: Fragment total amended from 35 to 61 as per ongoing observations.